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Can Molson Coors Maintain Its Earnings Surprise Trend in Q3?

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Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP - Free Report) is expected to register top and bottom-line declines when it reports third-quarter 2024 earnings on Nov. 7, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.1 billion, indicating a 4.8% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

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The consensus mark for earnings has moved down a penny in the past 30 days to $1.66 per share, indicating a decline of 13.5% from the year-ago reported figure.

In the last reported quarter, this leading alcohol company delivered an earnings surprise of 14.3%. It has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 20%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for TAP


Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Molson Coors this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Molson Coors currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of -4.25%.

Trends to Drive TAP’s Q3 Results


Molson Coors has demonstrated strong brand resilience and consistent success across its geographic markets, historically driving sales growth. Steady progress on its Acceleration Plan supports this momentum, with market share gains fueled by innovation and premiumization.

Molson Coors has been progressing well with its revitalization plan, aimed at achieving sustainable top-line growth by streamlining the organization and reinvesting in its brands and capabilities. The company has been focused on investing in iconic brands and exploring growth opportunities in the above-premium beer segment, while expanding into adjacent markets and beyond beer, without compromising support for its existing major brands. The progress made under this plan is expected to have favorably influenced Molson Coors' third-quarter performance.

Molson Coors is well-positioned to leverage consumer demand for premium beverages, expanding its portfolio with higher-margin options like Simply Spiked Lemonade. Strategic investments in core brands and market share expansion are expected to have boosted the top line in the to-be-reported quarter.

The company has been enhancing its digital capabilities across commercial functions, supply-chain systems and workforce training. The company’s top line is expected to have benefited from pricing actions implemented to navigate the inflationary environment.

Molson Coors' ongoing cost-saving initiatives, which focus on streamlining operations and reducing overheads, are expected to have supported financial health and allow for greater reinvestment in key marketing and sales activities. These efforts are anticipated to have contributed to margin expansion in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the company has been facing challenges, including cost inflation for raw materials and manufacturing expenses, as well as an unfavorable product mix. In the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management expected inflationary pressures on COGS to persist into the third quarter. Additionally, the softness in the overall beer industry has been concerning.

TAP’s Valuation Picture


From a valuation perspective, Molson Coors offers an attractive opportunity, trading at a discount relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 9.48x, which is below the five-year high of 15.57x and the Consumer Staples industry’s average of 16.42x, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

The recent market movements show that TAP’s shares have risen 7.5% in the past three months against the industry's 0.5% decline.

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Stocks With the Favorable Combination


Here are three companies, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle:

Freshpet (FRPT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +29.10% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

FRPT is anticipated to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $247.6 million, indicating growth of 23.4% year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s earnings has remained unchanged at 14 cents per share in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate suggests 193.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. FRPT has delivered an earnings surprise of 132.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Dutch Bros (BROS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +7.14% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The company is expected to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $324.5 million, which indicates a rise of 22.7% from the prior-year reported figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dutch Bros’ quarterly earnings has moved up a penny in the past 30 days to 12 cents per share. The estimate indicates a 14.3% decline from the year-ago reported quarter. BROS has delivered an earnings surprise of 149%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. OLLI is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it releases third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $519 million, which implies a rise of 8.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ollie's bottom line has been unchanged at 57 cents in the past 30 days. The estimate indicates an 11.8% decline from the year-ago reported quarter. OLLI has delivered an earnings surprise of 7.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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